Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/18/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League Central matchup, the Chicago Cubs are set to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on May 18, 2024. The Cubs, who currently hold a record of 25-21 this season, are having an above-average season, while the Pirates are struggling with a record of 21-25, below the league average.

Both teams will be sending left-handed pitchers to the mound. The Cubs are projected to start Shota Imanaga, who has been performing exceptionally well this season with a 5-0 record and an outstanding 0.96 ERA. However, it's worth noting that his xFIP indicates some potential regression in his performance going forward. On the other hand, the Pirates are projected to start Bailey Falter, who has had a more average season with a 2-2 record and a 4.15 ERA.

Imanaga, ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been a key contributor to the Cubs' success this year. He is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.0 batters. However, his projection suggests that he may give up a high number of hits and walks in this game.

Falter, on the other hand, has struggled this season according to our rankings. He is projected to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs while striking out 3.5 batters. His projection also indicates that he may struggle with giving up hits and walks in this matchup.

When it comes to offense, the Cubs rank 13th best in MLB this season, with their batting average and home run production being around the league average. The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled offensively and rank 27th in MLB.

With the Cubs being the home team, their offense has been led by Christopher Morel, who has been their most impactful hitter this season. Morel has recorded 31 RBIs, 9 home runs, and 4 stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Pirates' top performer has been Bryan Reynolds, who has recorded 3 stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs are considered a big betting favorite with an implied win probability of 64%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Cubs to have a 60% win probability in this game. The Pirates, as big underdogs, have an implied win probability of 36%.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Falter has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 12.4% less often this season (34.8%) than he did last year (47.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Michael A. Taylor's 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) ranks in the 91st percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all starting pitchers, Shota Imanaga's fastball spin rate of 2427 rpm ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Cody Bellinger will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Patrick Wisdom pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games (+14.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.20 Units / 42% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.25 vs Chicago Cubs 5.04

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