Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction For 6/11/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off on June 11, 2024, at Busch Stadium in a National League Central matchup. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Cardinals holding a 31-33 record and the Pirates slightly behind at 31-34. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

The Cardinals will send Miles Mikolas to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 5.32 ERA and a 4-6 win/loss record. Despite these numbers, Mikolas's 3.97 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks 27th in MLB, making this a potentially favorable matchup for him. Moreover, Mikolas's low strikeout rate of 17.9% aligns well against a Pirates lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 4th in most strikeouts.

On the other side, the Pirates will start Paul Skenes, who has been outstanding with a 3.00 ERA and a 3-0 record over five starts. Skenes, ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, has also been a bit unlucky, with a 2.15 xFIP indicating he could perform even better. Skenes will be up against a Cardinals offense ranked 22nd overall and struggling in several key areas, including home runs (22nd) and stolen bases (26th).

The Cardinals' bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, could be a significant factor if Mikolas can hand them a lead. The Pirates' bullpen is also strong, ranked 7th, which could make runs hard to come by in this game.

Offensively, the Cardinals have seen a spark from Masyn Winn, who has been their best hitter over the last week, batting .381 with a 1.006 OPS. The Pirates' Rowdy Tellez has been equally impressive, hitting .462 with a 1.346 OPS over the same period.

With the game total set at 7.5 runs and betting markets favoring the Pirates at -130, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. The Cardinals' implied team total is 3.57 runs, while the Pirates' is 3.93 runs, indicating a slight edge for Pittsburgh in what should be a competitive game.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Paul Skenes will post an average of 6.4 strikeouts today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Oneil Cruz is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Michael A. Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has gone to his slider 5% more often this season (29.3%) than he did last season (24.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.10 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+6.40 Units / 71% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.05 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.67

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