Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 3/29/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On March 29, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park for the second game of their series. In their prior matchup, the Nationals fell short against the Phillies, continuing what has already been a disappointing 0-1 start to the season for Washington. In stark contrast, the Phillies secured a win, jumping to a positive 1-0 record and showcasing their strong start.

The pitching matchup highlights the struggles the Nationals are facing this season. Jake Irvin, ranked as the 248th best starting pitcher in MLB, takes the mound for Washington. Irvin projects to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which is far from encouraging, especially considering he also tends to walk an average of 1.7 batters per game. His numbers suggest he could be in for a rough outing against a potent Philadelphia lineup.

On the other hand, the Phillies will send Jesus Luzardo to the mound. Luzardo, deemed an average pitcher according to projections, is expected to toss 5.3 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, placing him in a significantly better position compared to Irvin. Luzardo’s ability to strike out 5.1 batters while boasting a relatively solid ERA could tip the scales in favor of Philadelphia.

Given the Nationals’ struggles and the projections indicating a favorable outlook for Luzardo, bettors might find value in backing the Phillies, who carry a high implied team total of 4.62 runs. The Nationals, with an implied team total of only 3.88 runs, are viewed as underdogs, highlighting the challenges they face in this matchup. As the season unfolds, it will be crucial for Washington to find a path to improvement, especially with pitching performances as critical as this one.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jesus Luzardo to be on a bit of a short leash in today's game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Paul DeJong, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games at home (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 106 games (+12.05 Units / 10% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

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