Philadelphia Phillies VS Washington Nationals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/5/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Overview

• Date: April 5, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (-112), Nationals +1.5 (-108)
• Money Line: Phillies -185, Nationals +154
• Total (Over/Under): 8.0

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 64.91%
• Washington Nationals - 39.37%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 65.37%
• Washington Nationals - 34.63%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 5, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park in a National League East matchup. Both teams are having a tough season so far, with the Nationals holding a 2-3 record and the Phillies at 2-4. The game is expected to feature a pitching duel between left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin for the Nationals and right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola for the Phillies.

The Nationals will look to bounce back from their recent struggles as they take on the Phillies at home. While their offense ranks 6th in MLB in team batting average this season, their power numbers have been lacking, ranking 29th in team home runs. However, they have an average ranking of 14th in team stolen bases, indicating some speed on the basepaths.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have been solid in terms of team batting average, ranking 8th in MLB. They have also shown some power, ranking 16th in team home runs. Additionally, their ability to steal bases has been impressive, ranking 10th in the league.

Over the past week, the Nationals' best hitter has been Jesse Winker, playing in 4 games and recording 5 hits. He boasts an impressive batting average of .455 and an OPS of 1.117. On the other side, Brandon Marsh has been the Phillies' standout player, playing in 4 games, recording 5 hits, 2 home runs, and 1 stolen base. He holds a solid batting average of .357 and an OPS of 1.143.

The Nationals will be looking to capitalize on their strong batting average, while the Phillies will aim to utilize their power and speed. With the game being the first in the series, both teams will be eager to set the tone and secure a victory.

While the Nationals may have struggled this season, they have the advantage of playing at home. However, the Phillies' offense has shown more consistency, making this matchup an intriguing one to watch. With THE BAT X projections favoring one team over the other, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds and if the underdog can pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Bryce Harper is likely to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Recording 92.6 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season on average, Patrick Corbin checks in at the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Gallo in the 0th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The 4th-weakest projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 86 games (+20.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 69 games (+10.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+6.60 Units / 132% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 4.94 vs Washington Nationals 3.32

Get daily MLB picks here.