Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/7/2025

On May 7, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The matchup is significant as both teams are looking to improve their standings, with the Phillies currently at 20-15 and the Rays at 16-19. The Rays are struggling with a below-average season, while the Phillies are performing well above expectations.

In their previous game, the Rays faced the Phillies and suffered a setback, adding pressure as they look to bounce back. This contest features a compelling pitching duel between Shane Baz and Cristopher Sanchez. Baz, who has a solid Win/Loss record of 3-1 and a respectable ERA of 3.86, is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. However, his underlying metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement.

Sanchez, on the other hand, comes in with an impressive 3.45 ERA and ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is also expected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and has been performing consistently well. This edge in pitching could prove crucial for the Phillies.

Offensively, the Rays rank 18th overall, with their power numbers being a key concern as they sit 24th in home runs. Conversely, the Phillies boast the 10th best offense in the league. With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs and the Rays having an implied team total of 4.00 runs, this matchup could lean in favor of the Phillies, whose offense is projected to score higher based on their current form. As the Rays aim to turn their season around, the stakes are high in this interleague showdown.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez is an extreme groundball pitcher (54.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in George M. Steinbrenner Field — the #9 HR venue in the majors — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Max Kepler has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz has utilized his curveball 13.1% more often this year (33.6%) than he did last year (20.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Yandy Diaz has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.9-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Lowe, Jose Caballero, Christopher Morel, Kameron Misner).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Curtis Mead has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 41% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.13, Tampa Bay Rays 4.06

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Shane Baz - Rays

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