Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 5/8/2025

On May 8, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their interleague series. Currently, the Rays sit at 16-20, struggling through a rough season, while the Phillies, boasting a 21-15 record, have been performing well. In their last matchup yesterday, the Phillies came away with a decisive victory, further emphasizing the disparity in team performance this season.

Tampa Bay's projected starter, Ryan Pepiot, has had a challenging year so far, recording a 2-4 win-loss record with an ERA of 4.23. Despite being ranked 95th among starting pitchers, suggesting an average performance, his peripherals indicate that he may not be as effective moving forward. Pepiot is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters.

In contrast, Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies has been exceptional, going undefeated at 3-0 with an impressive ERA of 1.94. Luzardo ranks 34th among MLB starters and projects similarly to Pepiot in terms of innings pitched, but he has a much better ERA and has shown superior command, making him a solid asset for the Phillies today.

The matchups don’t favor Tampa Bay, as Luzardo's high-groundball rate aligns well against a Rays offense that has struggled with power this season, ranking 25th in the league in home runs. With an implied team total of 3.99 runs for the Rays, the projections suggest they may find it difficult to keep pace with the Phillies, who have a higher implied total of 4.51 runs. Given the current form of both teams and their respective pitchers, the Rays will need a significant turnaround to compete effectively in this contest.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Jesus Luzardo's 95.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 90th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last season's 97.9-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Danny Jansen, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Caballero, Christopher Morel, Brandon Lowe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Curtis Mead has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.23, Tampa Bay Rays 4.61

• Date: May 8, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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