Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/26/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 160, Padres 1.5 -185
• Money Line: Phillies -110, Padres -110
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 50%
• San Diego Padres - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 46.41%
• San Diego Padres - 53.59%

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the San Diego Padres will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park on April 26, 2024. The Padres come into the game with a season record of 14-14, indicating an average performance thus far. On the other hand, the Phillies boast a strong record of 16-10, signaling a great season in progress.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove, who has had a mixed performance this year. Musgrove has started six games, with a win/loss record of 3-2. While his ERA sits at 5.74, indicating a rough season, his 4.84 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Musgrove is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projected to give up 5.1 hits and 1.4 walks on average.

The Phillies will counter with their ace, right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola. Nola has started five games this season and holds a solid record of 3-1. With an ERA of 3.16, he has been performing at a high level. However, his 3.81 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat lucky and may see a regression in performance. Nola is expected to pitch around 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. He, too, struggles with giving up hits and walks, projected to surrender 5.6 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

From an offensive standpoint, the Padres rank as the 8th best team in Major League Baseball (MLB) this season, indicating a strong underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 20th in the league, suggesting room for improvement. They excel in home runs, ranking 10th, and stolen bases, ranking 7th. On the other hand, the Phillies have an average offensive ranking, coming in at 14th in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 8th, highlighting their hitting prowess. In terms of home runs and stolen bases, they rank 16th and 10th, respectively.

Considering the overall performance of the teams, the Padres' bullpen ranks 6th in MLB, while the Phillies' bullpen lags behind at 24th. This suggests that the Padres have an advantage in relief pitching, which could play a significant role in the game's outcome.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. The Padres are slightly favored with a moneyline of -110, suggesting a close contest. Both teams have low implied team totals of 3.75 runs, according to current odds.

As the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies take the field, sports enthusiasts eagerly await the outcome of this National League clash. With both teams showcasing their strengths and weaknesses, it promises to be an intriguing contest that could go down to the wire.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Considering the 1.83 discrepancy between Aaron Nola's 3.16 ERA and his 4.99 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and ought to see worse results going forward.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove's 91.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph fall off from last season's 92.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games at home (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 117 games (+12.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• Joe Musgrove has hit the Strikeouts Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.45 Units / 45% ROI)

Phillies vs Padres Prediction: Phillies 4.18 - Padres 4.24

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.