Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 5/10/2025

On May 10, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians host the Philadelphia Phillies at Progressive Field for the second game of this interleague series. In their first matchup, the Guardians secured a commanding 6-0 victory, marking a strong statement in front of their home crowd. Both teams are enjoying successful seasons, with the Guardians sitting at 23-15, while the Phillies hold a record of 22-16.

The matchup highlights two very different pitchers. Tanner Bibee, projected to start for the Guardians, has had an average season, posting a 4.26 ERA and a 3-2 record over 7 starts. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have benefited from some good fortune, as his 6.13 FIP indicates he could be in for a rough outing if luck doesn't hold. In contrast, Ranger Suarez of the Phillies has struggled significantly with a dreadful 17.18 ERA in just 1 start this season. The projections indicate he may be due for a bounce-back, as his xFIP sits at a more favorable 2.62.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 17th overall, with an average batting performance that hasn't translated into runs effectively. In contrast, the Phillies boast the 9th best offense, fueled by a strong batting average ranked 6th in the league, highlighting their ability to generate consistent scoring. This disparity could become crucial in determining the outcome of today’s game.

Betting markets reflect a close matchup with the Guardians’ current moneyline at +105 and the Phillies at -125. Both teams feature reliable bullpens, with the Guardians ranked 4th in MLB, while the Phillies struggle at 22nd. Overall, this game could serve as a litmus test for two teams looking to gain momentum in their respective seasons.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 94.2-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Manzardo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Hedges, Jhonkensy Noel, Gabriel Arias).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+9.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+5.80 Units / 18% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.48, Cleveland Guardians 3.55

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.