Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 4/8/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies travel to Truist Park for their matchup against the Atlanta Braves on April 8, 2025, both teams enter the series with contrasting fortunes. The Braves, currently struggling with a 1-8 record, will look to turn their season around, while the Phillies are thriving at 7-2. The Braves are projected to send Chris Sale to the mound, who, despite being ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB, has faced difficulties this season with a 0-1 record and a troubling 5.40 ERA. In contrast, Zack Wheeler, projected to start for the Phillies, has been exceptional, holding a stellar 1.38 ERA and ranking 4th among starting pitchers.

The Braves' offense has been lackluster in terms of overall performance. This unit struggles particularly with power and consistency, as evidenced by their poor showings in batting average and home runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies boast a more potent offense, ranking 9th overall despite a weak showing in home runs, which reflects a swing-and-miss issue that they’ve thus far managed to navigate with overall hits and runs.

Both pitchers face intriguing matchups: Chris Sale, a high-strikeout pitcher, could struggle against a Phillies lineup that rarely strikes out, while Wheeler might find some challenges against a Braves lineup that has a significant ability to earn walks. This game total sits low at 7.0 runs, reflecting the cautious expectations from betting markets. The Braves' current moneyline at -115 implies a slight chance for victory, but with their current trajectory, a significant upset isn't out of the question if Sale can reclaim some of his elite form.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Max Kepler is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Bryce Harper is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.3% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Sale has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.1% more often this year (63.2%) than he did last season (55.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This season, there has been a decline in Matt Olson's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.49 ft/sec last year to 23.73 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 69 games at home (+28.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 114 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.55 Units / 94% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.