Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 4/10/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 10, 2025, in a crucial National League East matchup, with both teams looking to establish momentum as the season progresses. The Braves are struggling with a 2-9 record, while the Phillies have begun the season on a strong note at 8-3. The stakes are high, especially considering the Braves' disappointing performance thus far, compounded by their recent 4-3 loss to the Phillies in their last game.

On the mound, the Braves will send out Spencer Schwellenbach, who has made a strong impression early in the season, holding a perfect 1-0 record with an impressive ERA of 0.00 across two starts. Schwellenbach ranks as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, showcasing his elite status. However, projections suggest he could allow 2.3 earned runs today, and he faces a challenging Phillies lineup that ranks as the 5th best offense in MLB.

Jesus Luzardo, the Phillies' left-handed pitcher, has also been sharp, boasting a 2-0 record and a stellar ERA of 1.50. Luzardo is projected to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which is below average. The Braves' offense, ranked 24th in MLB, may struggle against Luzardo, who has been effective in limiting runs.

The Braves' offense has been lackluster, ranking 25th in batting average and home runs, which puts them at a disadvantage against a potent Phillies lineup. With the Braves projected to average just under 4 runs today, they will need a significant turnaround to challenge the Phillies' strong start. Given the current odds, the Braves may have an edge, but they'll need to capitalize on Schwellenbach's talent to avoid further disappointment.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 8 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Jesus Luzardo will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his home runs, Bryce Harper has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 27.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today, Bryce Harper is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.3% rate (93rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach's 96.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 93rd percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .326 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .337 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 92 of their last 147 games (+36.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 70 away games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)

• Date: April 10, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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