New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/18/2025

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to take on the New York Yankees on April 18, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Rays, currently sitting at 8-11, are struggling this season, while the Yankees boast a solid record of 12-7. This matchup is critical for the Rays as they look to turn their fortunes around against a potent Yankees offense.

In their previous meeting, the Yankees emerged victorious, and they continue to dominate with the best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 1st ranking in home runs. Drew Rasmussen, projected to start for the Rays, has been impressive with a 0.60 ERA this season, although his 2.76 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. He’s a high-groundball pitcher facing a powerful Yankees lineup, which could give him an edge if he can keep the ball on the ground.

Carlos Rodon, on the other hand, is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. While he has struggled with a 5.48 ERA, projections indicate he may perform better moving forward despite his current form. Rodon has a below-average win-loss record of 1-3 this year and allows a concerning number of hits and walks, making him vulnerable against the Rays’ 7th ranked offense.

The Rays’ offense is particularly strong in batting average, ranking 3rd in MLB, which could be crucial against Rodon. With both teams showing average implied team totals of 4.25 runs, this game promises to be a tightly contested battle, with Tampa Bay looking to leverage their home advantage and the projections hinting at a possible breakout.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Carlos Rodon in the 89th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Aaron Judge has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 97.4-mph to 101.3-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .333, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .354 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Danny Jansen, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters as a unit have been one of the worst in baseball since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 88-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.55 Units / 3% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.40 Units / 76% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.52, Tampa Bay Rays 4.69

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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