New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Preview – 5/24/2024

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Yu Darvish - Padres

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

In an exciting interleague matchup, the San Diego Padres will host the New York Yankees at Petco Park. The Padres, with a record of 27-26 this season, are having an average season so far. On the other hand, the Yankees boast an impressive record of 35-17, indicating a great season for them.

The Padres are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher, Yu Darvish. Darvish has been performing exceptionally well this year with a Win/Loss record of 4-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.08. However, his 3.54 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could face challenges going forward.

Opposing Darvish on the mound will be Carlos Rodon, a left-handed pitcher for the Yankees. Rodon has also been having a strong season, with a record of 5-2 and an ERA of 3.27. However, his 4.31 xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

This game marks the first in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Padres emerged victorious with a 6-4 win against the Reds. The Yankees, in their previous game, secured a 5-0 win over the Mariners.

The Padres' offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB, showcasing their strong batting lineup. However, their team batting average ranks 20th, indicating room for improvement. They excel in home runs, ranking 10th in the league, and stolen bases, where they rank 7th.

The Yankees possess the best offense in MLB, highlighting their powerful lineup. However, their team batting average ranks 29th, which is surprisingly low. They excel in home runs, ranking 8th, but their team stolen bases rank 20th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Padres' bullpen is ranked 9th best in MLB, while the Yankees' bullpen is ranked 26th, indicating a potential advantage for the Padres in the later innings.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have a slight edge with a projected win probability of 52%, while the Yankees have 48%. It is expected to be a close game, as indicated by the narrow moneyline odds for both teams.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Austin Wells is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish's four-seamer percentage has risen by 5.3% from last season to this one (16.7% to 22%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Since the start of last season, Luis Arraez's 3.5% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 10th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games (+12.30 Units / 56% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.56 vs San Diego Padres 4.45

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