New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/5/2025

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On April 5, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the New York Yankees in an intriguing Interleague matchup at PNC Park. The stakes are high, not only because it’s the second game of their series but also due to the stark contrast in fortunes between these two teams. The Yankees, sitting at 5-2, are off to a strong start, while the Pirates struggle with a disappointing 2-6 record. In their showdown yesterday, the Yankees secured a decisive 9-4 victory over the Pirates, continuing to showcase their potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB.

The starting pitchers will be an interesting focal point in this matchup. The Pirates are set to start Bailey Falter, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed bag of results. While he posted an excellent ERA of 3.00 in his lone start, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, projecting a higher xERA of 3.71. Falter’s performance will be crucial against a Yankees lineup that excels in hitting.

On the other mound, Marcus Stroman takes the hill for New York. Though Stroman has struggled with a 5.79 ERA, projections indicate he may improve. His ability to limit walks will be tested against a Pirates offense that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, hinting at a potential offensive showdown. With the Yankees favored at -160 and an implied team total of 5.23 runs, they appear poised to extend their winning streak against a reeling Pirates squad still searching for answers.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Austin Wells's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.66 ft/sec last year to 24.79 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jasson Dominguez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Marcus Stroman.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+10.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 70 away games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.35 Units / 52% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

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