New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 4/8/2025

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the New York Yankees on April 8, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with identical 6-4 records, showcasing their strong starts to the season. This game marks the second in a series that has already seen its share of excitement. In their previous encounter, the Tigers emerged victorious, adding a layer of intensity to today's clash.

Detroit will rely on left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, who, despite being ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has struggled to find his footing this season with a 0-2 record and a troubling 5.91 ERA. However, projections indicate that Skubal is likely to perform better than his current numbers suggest, as his xFIP of 4.13 projects a more favorable outcome. He is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing an average of just 1.8 earned runs, which would be elite performance.

On the other side, New York counters with Carlos Carrasco, who has had a rocky start with a 1-0 record but a 7.36 ERA. Carrasco's projections predict he will struggle, averaging only 4.9 innings pitched and allowing 2.6 earned runs. His low walk rate may allow him to limit free passes, but he faces a Tigers offense that ranks 4th in MLB for walks, potentially limiting his effectiveness.

With the Tigers favored at -170 on the moneyline, there’s a sense that they could capitalize on their home advantage, particularly given their solid bullpen ranking 8th in MLB. This matchup highlights the contrast between the elite pitching of Skubal and the offensive firepower of the Yankees, setting the stage for an intriguing game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all starters, Carlos Carrasco's fastball velocity of 91.6 mph grades out in the 20th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last week, Cody Bellinger's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Tarik Skubal (44.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 GB hitters in New York's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kerry Carpenter has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season's 96.3-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 78 games (+20.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 122 games (+15.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+15.00 Units / 250% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Yankees
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.