New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 4/7/2025

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On April 7, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the New York Yankees at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are off to solid starts this season, with the Yankees holding a 6-3 record, showcasing an elite offense that ranks 1st in MLB. The Tigers, at 5-4, are also performing well, particularly after a narrow 4-3 victory against another opponent just yesterday.

The matchup on the mound features the Tigers' Casey Mize, who is projected to start despite having only one game under his belt this season, boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest that his performance may not hold, as his xFIP indicates he could face challenges moving forward. Mize’s high flyball rate could be concerning against a Yankees lineup that has belted 25 home runs, the most in MLB.

Carlos Rodon, the Yankees' left-handed pitcher, comes in with a 3.97 ERA over two starts. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, his control issues could give the Tigers an opportunity to capitalize. The Yankees have a tendency to be aggressive at the plate, but Rodon’s high walk rate may allow the Tigers to draw free passes, potentially setting the stage for scoring opportunities.

In terms of offense, the Tigers rank 5th overall, while the Yankees lead the league in several categories, including team batting average and home runs. The Tigers’ best hitter has been on a tear lately, recording a .435 batting average over the past week, which could pose a challenge for Rodon if he struggles with command.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Tigers are seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +140, despite their solid start. This matchup promises to be an intriguing battle as both teams look to assert their dominance early in the season.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Austin Wells is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Detroit (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Yankees have been the luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Casey Mize will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Colt Keith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 81 games (+18.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 131 games (+16.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

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