New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/22/2025

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the New York Yankees on April 22, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with records of 13-9 and 14-9 respectively. The Guardians have been performing well, but they will need every bit of home-field advantage at Progressive Field. The Guardians won a close matchup over the Yankees yesterday, heightening the stakes as they face off in this critical second game of the series.

Cleveland's Tanner Bibee, projected as the starting pitcher, has had a rocky start to the season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.85. However, his predictive metrics suggest some bad luck, as his 5.14 SIERA ranks him considerably better than his current ERA. Bibee's ability to average 5.6 innings pitched with a projected 2.4 earned runs allowed could keep the Guardians in the game, especially if his strikeouts trend upward against a Yankees offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts this year.

On the other side, New York counters with Will Warren, who sports a 1-0 record and a 5.17 ERA. Warren’s projections indicate below-average performance, with a forecast of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed. This puts pressure on him to perform against a Guardians offense that, while average overall, ranks 10th in home runs.

Interestingly, the Guardians’ bullpen is rated 1st in MLB, which could provide a significant advantage late in the game. Given the Yankees' elite power-hitting and the Guardians' capability to surprise, this matchup promises to be tightly contested. With both teams’ offenses averaging 4.00 runs, odds suggest a close battle ahead.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ben Rice has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last season's 90-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that groundball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over groundball hitters, Tanner Bibee and his 36.5% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot today matching up with 3 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Manzardo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 38% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.35 Units / 70% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.14, Cleveland Guardians 4.44

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Will Warren - Yankees
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

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