New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/21/2025

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On April 21, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the New York Yankees in what promises to be an exciting matchup at Progressive Field. The Guardians are currently enjoying a solid season with a 12-9 record, while the Yankees are off to a great start at 14-8. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams, and both squads are looking to gain momentum.

Gavin Williams is projected to take the mound for the Guardians. He has had an average start to the season, with a 1-1 record and a 4.58 ERA. While his 5.27 xERA suggests he may have been fortunate so far, he projects to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs today. However, his high flyball rate (40%) could be concerning against a powerful Yankees offense that leads MLB with 38 home runs.

On the other side, Clarke Schmidt is set to start for the Yankees. Although he has only pitched once this season, his 4.76 ERA combined with a 5.69 xFIP indicates he too may have had some luck on his side. Schmidt's low strikeout rate (8.7 K%) could work against him, especially against a Guardians offense that ranks 15th in MLB but has been effective in making contact.

The Guardians' bullpen is ranked 1st in MLB, which could be crucial in a tight game, especially with the Yankees' offense ranked 2nd overall. With the Yankees expected to score around 4.35 runs and the Guardians projected for 4.15 runs, this matchup could come down to the effectiveness of each team's pitching. Given the current odds, the Guardians might offer value for bettors, especially considering their strong bullpen and the potential for Williams to exceed expectations despite his average ranking as a pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Considering that groundball batters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Clarke Schmidt and his 43.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in today's game going up against 1 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ben Rice has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 15.6% rate last season to 25.5% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams has used his slider 18% more often this season (29.3%) than he did last year (11.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Nolan Jones has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.3-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Bo Naylor, the Guardians's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.50 Units / 7% ROI)
• Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+9.65 Units / 62% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.66, Cleveland Guardians 4.25

• Date: April 21, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.