New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 4/28/2024

New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 120, Brewers 1.5 -145
• Money Line: Yankees -135, Brewers 115
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 55%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 45%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 60.59%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 39.41%

New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the New York Yankees in an Interleague matchup on April 28, 2024, at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a record of 17-9 this season, are having a great year, while the Yankees, with a record of 18-10, are also enjoying success.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers, who has started one game this year and has a win/loss record of 0-1. Myers has an impressive ERA of 1.80, indicating strong performance. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future outings.

On the other side, the Yankees are projected to start right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman. Stroman has started five games this season and has a win/loss record of 2-1. He boasts an excellent ERA of 2.93, but his 3.44 SIERA and 4.19 FIP indicate that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance moving forward.

In terms of offense, the Brewers rank as the #3 best team in MLB this season, showcasing their strong batting lineup. However, their team batting average ranks #27, indicating room for improvement. The Yankees, on the other hand, rank as the #12 best offense in MLB, with a team batting average that sits at #29.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Yankees have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs. This suggests that the game could be a close one, with the Yankees having a slightly higher win probability.

It's worth noting that the Brewers have been led by a standout performer over the last seven games in catcher Gary Sanchez, who has recorded 4 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a batting average of .308 and an impressive OPS of 1.280. The Yankees' standout hitter over the same period has been Alex Verdugo, who has recorded 9 hits, 4 runs, 8 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .409 and an OPS of 1.165.

With both teams having strong seasons, this matchup promises to be an exciting one. The Brewers will look to rely on their powerful offense, while the Yankees aim to capitalize on their solid pitching. Considering the projected starters and team performances, the game could unfold as a closely contested battle between these two talented teams.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's high usage percentage of his fastball (54.6% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Anthony Rizzo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Oliver Dunn has been pulled from the game early 31% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

• Being removed for a pinch hitter would be mean fewer at-bats and fewer opportunities to hit the Over on all props.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.08 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 away games (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Yankees vs Brewers Prediction: Yankees 5.28 - Brewers 3.96

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