New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Prediction – 5/4/2025

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Betting Preview

On May 4, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets in the first game of a National League double-header at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, struggling at 14-19 this season, are looking to turn their fortunes around against the Mets, who currently stand at an impressive 22-11. While the Cardinals possess the 12th best offense in MLB based on underlying talent, their recent performance has been underwhelming.

St. Louis is projected to send Erick Fedde to the mound, a right-handed pitcher with a 1-3 record and an average ERA of 4.68. Fedde’s advanced statistics suggest he has had some luck this season, as his 5.50 xFIP indicates he could be in for a rough outing. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 5.4 hits and 2.1 walks per outing could be problematic against an offense like the Mets', who rank 8th overall.

Meanwhile, the Mets counter with Blade Tidwell, another right-hander who, despite being considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, projects to allow an average of 2.5 earned runs over 4.9 innings. With both teams showcasing below-average bullpens—ranked 24th for the Cardinals and 29th for the Mets—the game may hinge on the starting pitchers' ability to navigate through potential trouble.

While the betting market favors the Mets slightly, with a moneyline of -135, the Cardinals' offense is capable of surprising, especially with their fourth-best team batting average. With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive as both teams aim to assert their dominance in the series.

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.22, St. Louis Cardinals 4.31

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blade Tidwell - Mets
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

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