New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 5/3/2025

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets on May 3, 2025, in what could be a pivotal matchup for both teams as the season progresses. The Cardinals find themselves struggling at 14-19, while the Mets are thriving at 22-11. In their previous game, the Mets secured a solid win over the Cardinals, continuing their strong form.

Starting for the Cardinals will be Erick Fedde, a right-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down season so far. He boasts a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.68, indicating that he has been somewhat lucky, as his xFIP of 5.52 suggests a potential regression. Fedde is a low-strikeout pitcher with just a 12.5% K-rate, which could be problematic against a Mets offense that ranks 8th overall in MLB projections. He is projected to pitch about 5.5 innings but may struggle against the Mets' lineup.

On the mound for the Mets, Tylor Megill is expected to continue his excellent performance. With a 3-2 record and an impressive 1.74 ERA, Megill ranks 50th among MLB starters and appears to be a reliable option. While he is also projected to allow 2.3 earned runs and 4.4 hits, his ability to mitigate damage could give the Mets an edge in this matchup.

Despite their current standing, the Cardinals’ offense is ranked 11th in MLB, performing well overall, although they struggle in home runs, ranking only 17th. This inconsistency may hinder their chances against a Mets team that has shown considerable strength this season. Given the current odds, the projections favor the Mets with a higher implied team total of 4.60 runs compared to the Cardinals' 3.90 runs, making St. Louis a team to watch as they look to rebound in this series.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brandon Nimmo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 98.3-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (39.5 compared to 31.1% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Batters such as Willson Contreras with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tylor Megill who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 31 games (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.68, St. Louis Cardinals 4.15

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

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