New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 4/16/2025

New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the New York Mets on April 16, 2025, they find themselves struggling with a 6-12 record this season, reflecting a challenging start. In contrast, the Mets are riding high with an 11-6 record, marking them as one of the stronger teams in the league. The Twins managed to snap a losing streak with a 6-3 victory over the Mets just a day prior, but consistency has been elusive for them this season.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers, with the Twins projected to start David Festa. While Festa boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA, his 4.47 xFIP suggests that he may have benefited from some luck thus far. He has only pitched one game this season and is projected to struggle, averaging just 4.6 innings with a modest strikeout rate of 4.9 batters per game. Conversely, the Mets will counter with Jose Urena, who struggled in his last outing, allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings.

The offensive stats paint a concerning picture for the Twins, who rank 26th in MLB in overall performance and 27th in batting average. Their best hitter has been solid recently, sporting a .375 batting average over the last week, and continues to be a bright spot amidst the team's struggles. Meanwhile, the Mets, although ranked 22nd in offense, have a leading hitter who boasts a .356 batting average and an impressive 1.195 OPS, showing the potential to capitalize on any mistakes from Festa.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets are indicating a tight contest. Both teams have a moneyline of -110, implying that this matchup is considered evenly matched. However, the Twins' home-field advantage, coupled with their recent win, might provide a glimmer of hope for a team in need of a turnaround.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given the 1.48 discrepancy between Jose Urena's 3.80 ERA and his 5.28 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season and should negatively regress in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brandon Nimmo has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.3-mph average to last year's 93.1-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 4th-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

In his last start, David Festa performed well and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme groundball batters like Byron Buxton usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+4.95 Units / 35% ROI)

New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.49, Minnesota Twins 4.64

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Urena - Mets
  • David Festa - Twins

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