New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 4/2/2025

Jay Sanin on April 2, 2025

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 2, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park in a crucial National League East matchup. The Marlins are riding a strong start to the season with a 4-2 record, while the Mets are struggling at 2-3. In their last encounter, the Mets managed to edge out the Marlins, continuing Miami’s pursuit to establish dominance in the series.

Miami’s Connor Gillispie is slated to take the mound, but he has struggled this season, holding a 0-1 record and a 5.40 ERA. His projections paint a grim picture, as he is expected to pitch around 4.4 innings while allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, 4.6 hits, and 1.8 walks. This performance is concerning, especially against a Mets offense that, despite its own troubles, ranks 33rd in MLB.

On the other side, New York’s Clay Holmes, who boasts a 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA, is expected to perform better. The projections suggest he’ll pitch approximately 5.7 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs. Holmes’s status as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB indicates he should be able to navigate Miami’s struggling lineup effectively.

Despite the Marlins’ offensive woes, ranking 29th in MLB, they have a slight edge at home. The projections indicate an average Game Total of 8.5 runs, with Miami’s low implied team total of 3.60 runs reflecting their offensive struggles. Meanwhile, the Mets have a higher implied team total of 4.90 runs, suggesting they could capitalize on Gillispie’s weaknesses.

As both teams vie for a better position in the standings, the Marlins will need a strong showing from their bullpen, currently ranked 30th, to support Gillispie against a Mets squad looking to rebound.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

In his previous outing, Clay Holmes turned in a great performance and conceded 2 ER.

A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Batters such as Brett Baty with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Connor Gillispie who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Connor Gillispie is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue among all parks today.

This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jonah Bride is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 116 games (+15.15 Units / 10% ROI)