New York Mets VS Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -185, Reds -1.5 160
• Money Line: Mets 100, Reds -120
• Total (Over/Under):9 -120

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 48%
• Cincinnati Reds - 52%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 44.82%
• Cincinnati Reds - 55.18%

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will take on the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park on April 6, 2024. The Reds, with a record of 4-3, are having a good season so far, while the struggling Mets hold a record of 2-5.

The Reds, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in familiar territory. They boast the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first in team batting average and stolen bases. Their lineup has been firing on all cylinders, led by their standout hitter, who has been consistently producing at the plate.

On the other hand, the Mets have been struggling offensively, ranking near the bottom in several offensive categories. Their best hitter has shown flashes of brilliance, but the team as a whole has been unable to generate consistent offense.

The pitching matchup for this game features Nick Martinez for the Reds and Luis Severino for the Mets. Martinez, a right-handed pitcher, has had a mediocre start to the season, with an ERA of 5.40. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is considered one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB.

Severino, also a right-handed pitcher, has had a rough start to the season with an ERA of 10.80. However, our Power Rankings suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Based on the projections, Martinez is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. Severino, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The Reds are favored to win with a moneyline of -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability, while the Mets have a moneyline of +100, with a 48% implied win probability.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Luis Severino will surrender an average of 2.1 singles in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jeff McNeil is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brett Baty has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4.62 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.85

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