New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/7/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the New York Mets on May 7, 2025, both teams are jockeying for position in the competitive National League landscape. The Mets, currently holding a solid 23-14 record, are coming off a poor performance in their previous game, where they could not get their bats going against Arizona's Zac Gallen. In contrast, the Diamondbacks sit at 19-17, managing to stay afloat with an above-average season.

Tonight's matchup features pitchers Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks and Kodai Senga for the Mets. Kelly, ranked 127th among starting pitchers, has shown some inconsistency in his 7 starts this year, sporting a 3-1 record with a 4.06 ERA. Notably, he projects to allow 2.9 earned runs over an average of 5.3 innings, but his peripherals suggest he may regress as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Senga has staked his claim as one of the league's better arms, currently ranked 54th, with an impressive 1.38 ERA and a 3-2 record in 6 starts.

The match-up favors Cody Senga, especially considering that the Diamondbacks' offense, while strong this season (5th best overall), may struggle against a pitcher of Senga's caliber. The projections suggest that both lineups could bring the heat, with the Diamondbacks expected to score about 4.34 runs and the Mets slightly ahead at 4.66 runs.

Given that the Mets' bullpen currently ranks 29th in the league, there may be an opportunity for the Diamondbacks to exploit any late-inning weaknesses. As always, the betting markets view this game as closely contested, underscoring the excitement of the impending showdown at Chase Field.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Kodai Senga’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (95.3 mph) has been significantly faster than than his seasonal rate (94.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Despite posting a .470 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Alonso has had some very good luck given the .101 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .369.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Merrill Kelly is expected to wring up 4.3 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ketel Marte pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+3.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.06, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.94

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kodai Senga - Mets
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

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