New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/6/2025

On May 6, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the New York Mets at Chase Field for the second game of their series. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 18-17, having had an average season so far, while the Mets are enjoying a strong campaign with a 23-13 record. The stakes are high, and both teams are looking to capitalize on their strengths.

In the previous matchup, the Mets edged out the Diamondbacks, and they’ll be looking to build on that momentum. Arizona's Zac Gallen is projected to start, bringing with him a Power Ranking of #40 among approximately 350 MLB pitchers. While Gallen has struggled with a 2-4 record and a below-average ERA of 4.93, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. However, Gallen's high walk rate (10.8 BB%) could play into the hands of the Mets, who have one of the league's most patient offenses, ranking 5th in walks.

On the other side, New York will counter with David Peterson, who has a solid 3.06 ERA and a 2-1 record this season. However, his projections indicate that he may have benefited from some luck, as his xERA is 1.39 points higher than his actual ERA. Peterson’s low walk rate (6.5 BB%) could neutralize the Diamondbacks' high-walk offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 5th best offense in MLB, while the Mets are ranked 7th. Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, with a Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs. The Diamondbacks' moneyline is currently set at -110, reflecting expectations of a close contest. With both teams having potent lineups and contrasting pitching styles, this matchup promises to be an exciting one for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), David Peterson is expected to ring up an average of 3.7 strikeouts in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Brandon Nimmo has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 96.5-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Zac Gallen in the 88th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ketel Marte hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 13 games at home (+2.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+7.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.05 Units / 33% ROI)

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.81, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.12

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

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