New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/5/2025

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the New York Mets on May 5, 2025, at Chase Field, both teams are looking to gain momentum in what promises to be an interesting series opener. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 18-16, showcasing an above-average season, while the Mets lead the way at 22-13, enjoying a strong start. The stakes are heightened as both teams are in contention for postseason positioning, making this matchup significant.

In their most recent contests, the Mets have been hot, with their best hitter posting a remarkable .526 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks' best hitter has also been productive, contributing to a potent offense that ranks 5th best in MLB. This powerful lineup could pose problems for Mets' starter Griffin Canning, who has a solid 4-1 record but is projected to struggle against a patient Diamondbacks offense that ranks 2nd in drawing walks.

On the mound, Ryne Nelson, who has yet to start a game this season, comes in with a 1-0 record despite an unflattering 5.82 ERA. However, his 2.50 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. In contrast, Canning’s excellent 2.61 ERA could be masking some luck, as his xFIP of 3.56 indicates he may not maintain that level of success.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, the betting markets expect a closely contested affair, and with both teams boasting high implied totals of 4.75 runs, this matchup could be a high-scoring event. As the Diamondbacks look to leverage their offensive strength against a struggling Mets bullpen ranked 29th, they may have the edge in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Griffin Canning's slider percentage has increased by 10.2% from last year to this one (24% to 34.2%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Luisangel Acuna is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Arizona (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 25% ROI)

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.03, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.26

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Mets
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.