New York Mets at San Francisco Giants Pick For 4/23/2024

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Logan Webb - Giants
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -165, Giants -1.5 140
• Money Line: Mets 130, Giants -150
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 42%
• San Francisco Giants - 58%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 33.7%
• San Francisco Giants - 66.3%

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

On April 23, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will face off against the New York Mets at Oracle Park. As the home team, the Giants will be looking to improve their season record of 10-13, while the Mets aim to continue their strong performance with a record of 12-9. This National League matchup promises an exciting game for both teams and their fans.

The Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound as their starting right-handed pitcher. Webb has been a standout performer this season, with a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.93. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Webb is considered the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite skills. However, his 4.84 xERA suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could face challenges in the future.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Luis Severino, another right-handed pitcher. Severino has also had a strong start to the season, boasting a 2-1 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 2.14. However, his 3.57 xFIP indicates that he may regress in performance going forward.

The Giants' offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and home run production. In contrast, the Mets' offense has been more potent, ranking 10th in the league. However, both teams have struggled in stolen bases, with the Giants ranking 29th and the Mets ranking 15th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Giants have the 2nd best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets' bullpen ranks 14th. This could give the Giants an advantage in the later innings.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are favored to win with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Mets, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Giants and the Mets. With Logan Webb's elite pitching skills and the Giants' strong bullpen, they have a good chance of securing a victory. However, the Mets' solid offense, led by their best hitter Jeff McNeil, could pose a challenge. It will be a game where both teams will look to capitalize on their strengths and secure a crucial win in their respective seasons.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino projects to strikeout an average of 4 hitters in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Logan Webb has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When estimating his batting average skill, Jung Hoo Lee is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 80 of their last 129 games (+25.97 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 140 games (+14.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 38% ROI)

Mets vs Giants Prediction: Mets 3.3 - Giants 4.44

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