Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/26/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
• Run Line: Twins -1.5 150, Angels 1.5 -170
• Money Line: Twins -110, Angels -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 50%
• Los Angeles Angels - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 45.6%
• Los Angeles Angels - 54.4%

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

The Los Angeles Angels are set to face off against the Minnesota Twins on April 26, 2024, at Angel Stadium. As the home team, the Angels will look to turn their season around, currently holding a disappointing 10-15 record. On the other hand, the Twins have had a below-average season so far, with an 11-13 record. This American League matchup promises an intriguing battle between the two teams.

The Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has had a challenging season with a 1-3 win/loss record and a high ERA of 6.75. However, his 4.23 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. The Twins, on the other hand, are expected to start right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober, who has shown promise with a 1-1 win/loss record and a 4.91 ERA. Ober's 4.27 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Angels have shown power, ranking third in team home runs this season. However, they have struggled in stolen bases, ranking 27th in the league. The Twins, on the other hand, have had a tough time offensively, ranking 25th overall. They have shown strength in team home runs, ranking seventh in the league.

Both teams have struggled with their bullpens this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Angels rank 28th in MLB, while the Twins rank 22nd. This could be a factor to watch in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Angels have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Twins have the same average implied team total. This suggests that betting markets anticipate a close game between the two teams.

Overall, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Angels to improve their record and turn their season around. With their strong offense and the potential for Patrick Sandoval to perform better than his numbers indicate, the Angels have a chance to secure a victory. However, the Twins will be looking to capitalize on their own offensive strengths and the potential of Bailey Ober to bounce back from some tough luck. It promises to be an exciting game between these two American League teams.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1-mph jump from last year's 90.7-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Carlos Santana is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Compared to their .313 overall projected rate, the .302 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Minnesota Twins projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Patrick Sandoval has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.49 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Patrick Sandoval has only hit the Earned Runs Under in 2 of his last 4 games (-1.05 Units / -19% ROI)

Twins vs Angels Prediction: Twins 4.22 - Angels 4.36

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