Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 4/1/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox will host the Minnesota Twins on April 1, 2025, in a matchup that sees two struggling teams trying to find their footing in the American League Central. The White Sox enter this game with a record of 2-2, while the Twins are off to a rough start at 0-4. Yesterday, the White Sox managed to edge out the Twins in a close game, further complicating Minnesota's early-season woes.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start Shane Smith, who has struggled thus far, ranking as the 221st best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings. Although Smith projects to allow an above-average 2.0 earned runs, his average of 4.4 innings pitched and concerning stats of 3.9 hits and 1.6 walks per game indicate potential trouble. Conversely, Simeon Woods Richardson, the Twins’ starter, is also having a tough time, but his projection of allowing 2.0 earned runs shows a glimmer of hope for Minnesota.

The White Sox offense has been particularly lackluster, ranking 30th in MLB in team batting average and home runs, while Minnesota's offense sits at a more respectable 11th overall. This disparity could play a crucial role in this matchup. The projections suggest that despite the Twins’ poor start, they have a better chance of putting runs on the board than the White Sox, who face a daunting uphill battle with such a struggling offense.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, bettors might want to consider the under given the offensive struggles on both sides. The White Sox are currently listed as significant underdogs at +145, which could present an intriguing opportunity for those willing to take a chance on an upset.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of going up against 7 same-handed hitters in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Wallner's maximum exit velocity (a reliable stat to assess power) has been 116.8 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 98th percentile.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In terms of his home runs, Michael A. Taylor has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 10.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.4.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 47% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Shane Smith - White Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.