Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 5/4/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox will face off against the Minnesota Twins on May 4, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Fenway Park. With a record of 18-17, the Red Sox are having an average season, while the Twins sit at a dismal 14-20, struggling to find their footing.

Boston is projected to start Garrett Crochet, who has emerged as an elite pitcher this season, ranking as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Crochet boasts a solid 3-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.05 in his seven starts. However, the projections suggest he may not sustain this level, as his xFIP of 3.24 indicates he might have benefitted from some good fortune. Nevertheless, Crochet is likely to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs, while also striking out an impressive 7.1 batters.

On the opposite side, the Twins are set to counter with Chris Paddack, who has struggled significantly this season with a 0-3 record and a high ERA of 5.60. While Paddack’s xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, his low strikeout rate of 17.9% could prove problematic against a Red Sox offense that ranks 6th overall and 2nd in strikeouts. Red Sox hitters, known for their patience at the plate, could exploit Paddack's control issues, as evidenced by his 11.4% walk rate.

With Boston favored at a moneyline of -220, the projections indicate a strong expectation for them to win, underscoring the offensive advantage they hold against a struggling Minnesota lineup. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, offering an inviting environment for bettors to consider the potential offensive fireworks from the Red Sox.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

In his previous game started, Chris Paddack conceded a colossal 9 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme groundball hitters like Byron Buxton tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average pitcher, Garrett Crochet has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 9.2 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jarren Duran has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+8.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+7.85 Units / 51% ROI)
• Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.83, Boston Red Sox 5.07

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.