Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 4/18/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on April 18, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing early in the season. The Braves sit at 5-13, while the Twins are slightly better at 7-12. This matchup marks the first game in a series between these two teams, both of whom are looking to turn their seasons around.

In their last outing, the Braves suffered a tough loss, further highlighting their struggles this season. Starting for Atlanta will be Bryce Elder, who has had a rocky start with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an alarming ERA of 7.20. While Elder's 3.52 xFIP suggests he may be due for better luck, he faces a challenging matchup against a Twins lineup that has been remarkably patient at the plate, ranking 4th in the league for fewest walks.

On the other side, Chris Paddack will take the mound for Minnesota. His own struggles are evident, with a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 9.49. However, projections indicate that Paddack might fare better against a Braves offense that has the 6th highest strikeout rate in MLB, playing right into his low-strikeout tendencies.

Offensively, the Braves have shown some power, ranking 8th in home runs this season, which could be a key factor against Paddack. The Braves' bullpen is currently ranked 19th, suggesting that if they can get a lead, they may be able to hold onto it. Meanwhile, the Twins' bullpen ranks 5th, giving them an edge in late-game scenarios.

With the Braves holding a moneyline of -135 and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their home field advantage. However, given the current form of both teams, this matchup could be closer than the odds suggest.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Trevor Larnach's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.2-mph EV last season has fallen to 85.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder is projected to allow an average of 5.5 hits in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme groundball bats like Ozzie Albies generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Paddack.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Atlanta Braves offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games at home (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.95 Units / 58% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.49, Atlanta Braves 4.8

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.