Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/9/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Milwaukee Brewers on May 9, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams are looking to turn around their seasons. The Rays currently hold a disappointing record of 16-21, while the Brewers sit at a more average 19-19. Recent performances highlight the inefficacies of both offenses, with the Rays ranked just 23rd in the league overall and the Brewers not far behind at 21st.

The Rays will send Zack Littell to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 2-5 record and a below-average 5.62 FIP. Littell's recent outings suggest he's been on the lucky side of things, as his expected metrics indicate potential regression. In contrast, the Brewers will counter with Jose Quintana, a left-hander boasting an impressive 4-1 record and a stellar 2.83 ERA. However, projections for Quintana hint he might not sustain this level, with an xFIP of 4.19 suggesting he could underperform moving forward.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, oddsmakers are projecting a tight contest, giving both teams a moneyline of -110. Despite their struggles, the Rays are favored with an implied team total of 4.50 runs, a nod to their potential for offensive production. Considering the way the starting pitchers are shaping up, this game could be a critical turning point for either team as they aim to solidify their positions in a competitive landscape.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Jose Quintana's sinker usage has risen by 15.4% from last year to this one (30.4% to 45.8%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Tampa Bay's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brandon Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (97% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Caballero, Christopher Morel, Brandon Lowe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.55 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.62 Units / 18% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.11, Tampa Bay Rays 4.81

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers
  • Zack Littell - Rays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.