Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 4/29/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 29, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their fortunes in a matchup that features two struggling squads. The White Sox sit at the bottom of the division with a record of 7-21, while the Brewers are just above them at 14-15. The Brewers are coming off a strong performance, having secured a 7-1 victory in their last game, while the White Sox fell short in a close 3-2 loss.

This game marks the first in a series between the two teams, and the matchup on the mound features Bryse Wilson for the White Sox and Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. Wilson has had a rough start to his season, with an average ERA of 4.30 and a concerning xFIP of 5.02. He projects to pitch only 4.4 innings today, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, which is below average. His performance has been inconsistent, having pitched just 3 innings in his last start, giving up 1 earned run with 5 hits and 3 walks.

On the other hand, Freddy Peralta has been a bright spot for the Brewers, currently ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His stellar 2.43 ERA suggests he has been effective, although his xFIP of 3.73 indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate. Peralta's projections for today are solid, as he is expected to pitch 5.9 innings while allowing only 2.2 earned runs.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 29th in the league, struggling to generate runs, while the Brewers sit in the middle of the pack at 16th. With the Brewers’ strong showing in their last game and Peralta's superior form on the mound, they are favored to take this matchup. However, the White Sox will be looking to turn their season around and capitalize on any mistakes made by the Brewers.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in MLB in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

This season, William Contreras's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 10% last year to just 3.7% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 9 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Tyler Gilbert will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Luis Robert Jr.'s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 90-mph figure last season has lowered to 85.1-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-weakest projected lineup of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.92 Units / 39% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Chicago White Sox 3.61

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Bryse Wilson - White Sox

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