Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On May 25, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Fenway Park in an exciting Interleague matchup. The Red Sox, with a season record of 26-25, are having an average season, while the Brewers have been performing exceptionally well with a record of 29-21.

The Red Sox will be the home team for this game, hoping to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, who has been above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Pivetta has started five games this year, boasting a 2-2 record and an impressive 3.04 ERA.

On the other side, the Brewers will be the away team, looking to continue their strong season. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Colin Rea, who has struggled this season according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Rea has started nine games, with a 3-2 record and a 4.07 ERA.

In their last game, the Red Sox faced the Brewers and suffered a 7-2 loss. Despite being the underdogs in that game, the Brewers showcased their offensive prowess. However, the Red Sox have a solid offense themselves, ranking as the 10th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Brewers struggle in team batting average, ranking 27th.

The Red Sox bullpen, ranked as the 26th best in MLB, will face off against the Brewers' bullpen, ranked as the 14th best. The Brewers have a slight advantage in this area, but both teams will need strong performances from their relievers.

According to the current odds, the Red Sox are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 57%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also favors the Red Sox with a projected win probability of 58%. The Red Sox have a high implied team total of 5.14 runs, while the Brewers have a slightly lower implied team total of 4.36 runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected lineup today (.313 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .327 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has averaged 80.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 10th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Wilyer Abreu has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 26.74 ft/sec to 27.51 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 away games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.75 vs Boston Red Sox 5.26

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