Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 4/13/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 13, 2025, both teams are looking to maintain their solid starts to the season. Currently, both teams hold an 8-7 record, indicating an above-average performance early in the year. This matchup is particularly intriguing, given that the Diamondbacks' offense ranks as the 4th best in MLB, while the Brewers sit in the 15th position.

In their last outing on April 12, the Diamondbacks managed a tight 5-4 victory over the Brewers, who are now eager to bounce back. The Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the mound, who has been impressive this season with a 2.00 ERA and a strong 32.8% strikeout rate. However, he faces a Diamondbacks lineup that has been tough to strike out, leading MLB with the fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Zac Gallen, who has had a rocky start to the season with a 5.28 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced projections suggest that Gallen has been somewhat unlucky, with a 3.86 xFIP indicating potential for improvement. He is expected to pitch approximately 5.7 innings and project to allow 2.6 earned runs, which could be tested against a Brewers lineup that has been average offensively.

With both teams looking to solidify their early-season success, this matchup promises to be competitive. The Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -120, suggesting that the betting markets see them as slight favorites despite their recent victory. Ultimately, this game could be pivotal for both teams as they navigate the competitive landscape of the National League.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of every team today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brice Turang has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 10% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oliver Dunn, Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Mitchell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Corbin Carroll has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year's 89.2-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks bats as a group have been among the best in baseball since the start of last season (7th-) when it comes to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.4, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.2

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

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