Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 4/18/2025

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On April 18, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park in a National League East showdown. The Phillies enter this matchup with a solid 11-8 record, while the Marlins are struggling at 8-10. This is the first time these teams will face off this season, as the Marlins will look to get back on track against a division rival that is off to a strong start.

Projected starters Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins present an intriguing matchup. Wheeler, ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB, is showing signs of improvement with a 3.12 xFIP, indicating he might be due for better results despite his 4.07 ERA. He projects to pitch 6.3 innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs while striking out 7.3 batters. However, he does have a high rate of fly balls, which could be a concern against a Marlins lineup that has struggled to hit home runs this season, ranking 26th in that category.

On the other hand, Alcantara, ranked 30th among starters, comes into this game with a 4.70 ERA and a concerning 12.7% walk rate. Given that the Phillies rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks, they could take advantage of Alcantara’s control issues. The projections suggest that Alcantara may allow more runs than Wheeler, with a projected 2.7 earned runs over 6.1 innings.

With the Phillies' offense showing promise, ranking 11th overall, they are favored to score around 4.40 runs against a Marlins team whose offense ranks 15th but has been inconsistent. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, the Phillies are positioned well to continue their winning ways in this series opener.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

As it relates to his batting average, Xavier Edwards has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .329 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .282.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording 8.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alec Bohm is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Zack Wheeler has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+5.10 Units / 17% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.41, Philadelphia Phillies 4.28

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

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