Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/9/2025

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 9, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins at Citi Field in what shapes up to be an intriguing National League East clash. The Mets currently hold a record of 8-3, showcasing a strong start to the season, while the Marlins sit at 5-6, struggling to find their footing. In their previous meeting, New York took the first game of the series, setting the stage for a pivotal matchup.

Projected starters Tylor Megill and Max Meyer are both right-handed pitchers with contrasting early-season narratives. Megill has been excellent, boasting a 2-0 record and an impressive 0.87 ERA, while also projecting to allow only 1.8 earned runs today. However, his 3.79 xFIP suggests he may be due for a correction. Meanwhile, Meyer has struggled, starting the season at 0-1 with a solid 3.09 ERA, but his 0.69 point discrepancy between his ERA and xERA indicates he might also be living on borrowed time.

Offensively, the Mets rank 23rd in MLB, which is concerning given their overall record. However, they have had a standout hitter recently, with their best player recording 10 hits and 11 RBIs over the past week. This offensive output could prove vital against Meyer, who faces a low-strikeout Mets lineup, which may mitigate his high strikeout potential.

The Marlins will need to find a way to improve their offensive output, as they rank 22nd in overall performance and are projected to score a meager 2.86 runs today. While the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -220, suggesting they should win this matchup, the projections indicate that they may need to step up their offensive game to deliver on that expectation.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Max Meyer is expected to average a total of 15.5 outs in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Xavier Edwards's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86-mph figure last season has fallen off to 79.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (62.3 compared to 56.3% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Typically, batters like Brett Baty who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Meyer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games at home (+16.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.