Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/29/2025

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Miami Marlins in a key National League matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, currently holding an impressive 19-10 record, have been on a roll with a recent victory over the Marlins by a score of 7-6 in their last outing on April 28. Conversely, Miami is struggling this season with a 12-16 record after their narrow loss.

Dodgers' pitcher Matt Sauer, projected to start, is looking to find his groove as he's made only one appearance out of the bullpen this year without any starts and carries a subpar 5.40 ERA. However, his 4.72 xFIP suggests that he might be due for some positive regression. On the other side, Sandy Alcantara is expected to take the mound for the Marlins. Despite a respectable 4.21 xFIP, Alcantara's 6.56 ERA indicates he has had a tough start, but his talent shows he can bounce back.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank 5th in MLB, fueled by their second-best home run total (46). This firepower poses a challenging matchup for Alcantara, particularly since he has a high groundball percentage (59 GB%) that might limit the effectiveness of the Dodgers’ potent lineup. Meanwhile, Miami’s offense, ranking 15th and 4th in batting average, has shown flashes of promise but ranks just 21st in home runs, highlighting their struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

As the Dodgers emerge as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -185, they are expected to leverage their strong offensive output against a struggling Marlins team, potentially leading to another victory in this series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Matt Mervis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis, Dane Myers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Matt Sauer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Freddie Freeman is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.55, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.25

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
  • Matt Sauer - Dodgers

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