Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 5/10/2025

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Miami Marlins on May 10, 2025, both teams are struggling, with the White Sox sitting at the bottom of the division with a record of 11-28 and the Marlins not far ahead at 14-23. These two clubs faced off yesterday, with the White Sox taking the victory, further solidifying the Marlins' woes this season.

On the mound, the White Sox are set to start Shane Smith, a right-handed pitcher who has been surprisingly effective this year despite a below-average rank as the 126th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ERA of 2.41 is excellent, but his 4.40 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and might regress. Smith is projected to go an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs while striking out 4.6 batters. However, his tendency to walk batters may be tested against a Marlins offense that has shown patience, ranking 6th in the league for fewest walks.

Miami counters with Edward Cabrera, who has had a rough start to the season, sporting a 6.29 ERA. Although Cabrera's 4.35 xFIP indicates he could improve, he still projects to allow 2.4 earned runs over 5.4 innings, making him potentially vulnerable against a struggling White Sox offense that ranks 29th in MLB.

Interestingly, the White Sox rank dead last in home runs this season, which could play a significant role in this matchup. Despite their lack of power, they have a slight edge in the projections for this game, with both teams expected to score around 4.25 runs according to current betting lines. With so much at stake for both teams to turn their seasons around, this game could prove pivotal in determining their trajectories as the season progresses.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera has utilized his change-up 6.2% less often this year (27%) than he did last season (33.2%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Typically, bats like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Shane Smith.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Shane Smith's 94.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 75th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Miguel Vargas has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+8.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 43% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.73, Chicago White Sox 4.03

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Shane Smith - White Sox

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