Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 4/5/2025

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On April 5, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins at Truist Park, marking the second game of their series. The Braves enter this matchup struggling, holding a disappointing 1-7 record this season. Meanwhile, the Marlins are sitting at a more respectable 4-4.

The Braves' pitching matchup features AJ Smith-Shawver, who is projected to start despite ranking as the 238th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating significant struggles. In his lone start this season, Smith-Shawver has an 0-1 record with a 4.50 ERA, suggesting that he may have been a bit unlucky so far. The projections indicate he is likely to perform better, as his 3.90 xFIP shows he could improve if given the right conditions.

On the other side, the Marlins will send Cal Quantrill to the mound. He, too, has struggled out of the gate, with a dreadful 13.50 ERA and a similarly poor ranking among MLB pitchers. However, given that the Braves offense has the 4th highest strikeout rate in the league, this could play into Quantrill's favor, as he thrives against high-strikeout teams.

With the Braves having a strong bullpen ranked 9th, compared to the Marlins’ 30th, Atlanta's pitching depth might be a deciding factor. The Braves are heavy favorites, with a moneyline of -220 and an implied run total of 5.02 runs for today's game, while the Marlins have an implied total of just 3.48 runs. As both teams look to find their footing, this game could turn on the performances of each starting pitcher.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Dane Myers usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Matt Mervis, Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 152 games (+39.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 71 games (+17.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 57% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves

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