Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/9/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 9, 2025, they find themselves struggling with a 5-6 record this season, which has been below average. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have established themselves as a strong contender with a 9-4 record, showcasing their talent in both pitching and hitting.

In their previous matchup, the Nationals bested the Dodgers, surprising the defending champs for the second straight game. The Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the mound, who has struggled early in the season with a 5.40 ERA and is ranked as the 223rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Irvin projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, with a concerning 4.8 hits projected. His tendency to give up walks could be problematic against a patient Dodgers lineup.

On the other hand, Landon Knack is set to make his first start of the season after a successful stint out of the bullpen, boasting an impressive 0.00 ERA. Although his projections indicate he may only pitch around 3.6 innings, Knack's dominance could pose a challenge for the Nationals, given their rank as the 5th least-walked offense in MLB.

The projections favor the Dodgers, who are currently ranked 8th in overall offense and 2nd in home runs. With the Nationals ranked 13th in offense, they will need a standout performance from their hitters, especially with their best player averaging a .333 batting average over the past week. This matchup could hinge on whether the Nationals can exploit Knack's inexperience as a starter, while the Dodgers look to continue their winning ways against a struggling Nationals team.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA since the start of last season; his 3.55 mark is a fair amount lower than his 4.62 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Max Muncy has a ton of pop (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin is a pitch-to-contact type (25th percentile K%) — great news for Muncy.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin wasn't on when it came to striking batters out in his previous game started and put up 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Josh Bell's footspeed has decreased this year. His 25.42 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.45 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 40 games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 94 games (+27.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+16.45 Units / 66% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.