Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview, & Odds – 6/6/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a National League matchup at PNC Park on June 6, 2024. The Pirates, with a season record of 29-32, are having a below-average season, while the Dodgers boast an impressive record of 38-25, indicating a great season for them.

The Pirates will have Bailey Falter on the mound, a left-handed pitcher who is projected to start the game. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Falter is ranked as the #216 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league. He has started 11 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.22, which is considered great. However, his 4.70 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler, a right-handed pitcher. Buehler is ranked as the #76 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings, making him above average. He has started 5 games this season, with a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.32, which is considered average. However, his 3.70 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better in future outings.

The Pirates offense ranks as the #28 best in MLB this season, indicating a very bad ranking. They rank #26 in team batting average, #23 in team home runs, and #12 in team stolen bases. On the other hand, the Dodgers offense is ranked as the #2 best in MLB, indicating a great ranking. They rank #12 in team batting average, #2 in team home runs, and #20 in team stolen bases.

In terms of the bullpen, both teams have average rankings according to our Power Rankings. The Pirates have the #12 best bullpen in MLB, while the Dodgers have the #13 best bullpen.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are considered big underdogs with a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are big favorites with a moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%.

With the Pirates having a below-average season and the Dodgers dominating with a great record, the odds heavily favor the Dodgers in this matchup. However, baseball is a game of unpredictability, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average hurler, Walker Buehler has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -9.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Teoscar Hernandez has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Freddie Freeman has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Falter has used his secondary offerings 14.1% less often this year (33.1%) than he did last year (47.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Rowdy Tellez's speed has increased this season. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.38 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.30 Units / 50% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.47 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.33

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.