Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 4/4/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 4, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams come into this game with impressive records, with the Phillies at 5-1 and the Dodgers a perfect 8-0 this season. The magnitude of this contest is heightened by the fact that it marks the first game in the series between these two talented clubs.

The Phillies will send Jesus Luzardo to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who has shown potential with a 3.60 ERA and a solid 1.00 xFIP, indicating he may have been a bit unlucky so far this year. Luzardo projects to pitch 5.4 innings with 6.0 strikeouts, but he’ll need to improve on allowing an average of 4.6 hits and 1.9 walks per game to keep the potent Dodgers offense at bay. The Dodgers' lineup features significant firepower, ranking 3rd in MLB with 18 home runs this season.

On the other side, Los Angeles counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a right-handed pitcher and the 8th best starter in MLB according to advanced metrics. Yamamoto has been impressive with a 2.70 ERA and projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs over an average outing of 5.5 innings. Despite both pitchers’ solid profiles, Luzardo's high ground-ball rate may play into his favor against a team that thrives on home runs, potentially neutralizing their power.

In terms of offense, the Phillies rank 3rd overall this season, placing them ahead of the Dodgers, who sit at 13th. However, the projections indicate that the Phillies are undervalued in the betting market with a low implied team total of 3.73 runs. Given their explosive start and home-field advantage, they may just surprise the Dodgers in this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Compared to their .340 overall projected rate, the .324 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order in today's game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

When assessing his batting average talent, Trea Turner is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 102 games (+10.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 103 games (+25.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+17.05 Units / 85% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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