Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 4/22/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field in a key National League matchup. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, with the Cubs sitting at 14-10 and the Dodgers at 16-7. The stakes are high as this marks the first game of the series, and both teams are eager to establish momentum. Notably, the Cubs’ Shota Imanaga is projected to start after a solid outing where he pitched well, contributing to his impressive 2.22 ERA this year.

Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher, has seen mixed results in his five starts this season, holding a 2-1 record. However, his 4.86 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune, indicating potential challenges ahead. On the other hand, Dustin May of the Dodgers, a right-hander with a 1.06 ERA, has been effective in his three starts but also shows a higher xFIP of 3.29, hinting at possible regression.

The Cubs' offense has been a force, ranking 2nd in MLB, bolstered by their 3rd-best home run total, which could pose problems for Imanaga's tendency to allow fly balls. Conversely, the Dodgers rank 10th overall offensively but have been less consistent, especially in batting average, sitting at 20th.

Betting markets are leaning slightly toward the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -115, suggesting they might have the edge. However, the Cubs, with their powerful lineup and home-field advantage, could very well defy expectations. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, it’s shaping up to be a competitive matchup as both teams strive to solidify their positions in the standings.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dustin May to throw 84 pitches in today's game (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Extreme flyball bats like Miguel Rojas are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order grades out as the best of the day in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Carson Kelly has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.6% rate last year to 23.7% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs hitters as a unit rank near the cellar of the league this year (25th- overall) when it comes to their 101.1-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their hardest-contacted balls.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 48% ROI)
• Carson Kelly has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+21.10 Units / 211% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.69, Chicago Cubs 4.98

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dustin May - Dodgers
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

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