Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/4/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In a compelling National League matchup on May 4, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Truist Park. Both teams are coming off a tough series, with the Braves struggling at 14-17, while the Dodgers are thriving with a 22-10 record. The Dodgers won yesterday's game, further solidifying their position as one of the league's elite teams.

As the Braves look to turn their season around, they are projected to start Bryce Elder, who has been anything but consistent. Elder's ERA stands at a disappointing 5.33, and while his 4.46 xFIP suggests some bad luck, he still projects to pitch just 5.0 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs today. His below-average strikeout projection of 4.0 and tendency to allow 2.1 walks could spell trouble against a potent Dodgers offense.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Dustin May. May has an ERA of 3.95 and projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs. Although his strikeout rate isn't stellar at 3.8, his effectiveness in limiting runs could be crucial in today’s high Game Total of 9.0 runs. The Dodgers' offense ranks 3rd in MLB, with a remarkable power display contributing to their 52 home runs this season, making them a daunting foe for Elder.

While the Braves have a respectable offense, ranking 14th overall, they will need to capitalize on their opportunities against a Dodgers bullpen ranked 5th in MLB. The Braves find themselves as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, and while they face a tough challenge, their high-groundball pitcher may find a way to keep the game competitive against the Dodgers' powerful lineup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dustin May's high usage rate of his fastball (55.6% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup projects as the best of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder's 90.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 10th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+5.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 50% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.75 Units / 97% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.83, Atlanta Braves 4.69

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dustin May - Dodgers
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

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