Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 5/3/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On May 3, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. This marks the second game of the series, and the last encounter saw the Dodgers come out on top, showcasing their ongoing dominance this season. The Braves are struggling with a record of 14-17, while the Dodgers sit at a robust 22-10, reflecting a stark contrast in performance.

Atlanta's Spencer Schwellenbach, projected to start, ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, an impressive feat among approximately 350 pitchers. His ERA of 2.87 this year is excellent, though his 3.71 xERA suggests he may have enjoyed a bit of good fortune thus far. Schwellenbach has a high groundball rate of 50%, which could mitigate the Dodgers’ power-hitting prowess, as they lead the league with 51 home runs this season. However, he faces a tough challenge against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd overall in MLB offensive efficiency.

Roki Sasaki, the Dodgers' starter, presents a different scenario. Despite being a solid pitcher, his 5.27 xFIP indicates he might not be as effective as his 3.55 ERA suggests. Sasaki's ability to limit runs will be tested against a Braves offense that, while average with a ranking of 13th, has the capability to capitalize on favorable matchups.

Both teams are projected to score around 4.25 runs tonight, and with the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the odds suggest a closely contested game. Atlanta's moneyline stands at -110, reflecting their position as a slight favorite despite their current struggles. Given the Braves' recent lack of success and the Dodgers' consistency, this matchup could favor Los Angeles if they continue their strong play.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Roki Sasaki's 2084-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 4th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Conforto has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Spencer Schwellenbach (44.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 4 GB hitters in Los Angeles's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Olson has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.92, Atlanta Braves 4.67

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roki Sasaki - Dodgers
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.