Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 4/29/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will host the Los Angeles Angels on April 29, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Mariners are enjoying a solid season with a record of 16-12, while the Angels struggle at 12-15. The Mariners sit in a better position both in the standings and in terms of offensive production, ranking 4th in MLB, compared to the Angels' dismal 27th ranking.

In their last game, the Mariners got a win and they will look for another one here, going to Bryce Miller on the mound. Miller is projected to take the mound again and has been an above-average pitcher this season, currently ranked 77th among starting pitchers. With a 4.21 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xERA of 3.67 indicates he could perform even better moving forward.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled this season, holding a 5.47 ERA and ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. His high groundball rate may help him against a powerful Mariners lineup, but he faces a tough challenge given that the Mariners rank 3rd in home runs with 42 this year.

The Mariners are significant favorites with a moneyline of -175, reflecting their stronger recent form and offensive capabilities. Meanwhile, the Angels, despite their power (5th in home runs), have faltered in other key areas, ranking 29th in team batting average and 28th in stolen bases.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Given that flyball batters hold a substantial edge over groundball pitchers, Jack Kochanowicz and his 50.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in this matchup facing 0 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Schanuel will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller will have the handedness advantage over 7 opposing bats today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Batters such as Jorge Polanco with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 43% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+11.60 Units / 166% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.65, Seattle Mariners 4.31

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

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