Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 4/25/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On April 25, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Los Angeles Angels at Target Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams have had uneven seasons, with the Twins struggling at 9-16, while the Angels sit slightly better at 12-12. With both squads underperforming relative to expectations, this game could carry significant weight for their respective campaigns.

Pablo Lopez, projected to start for the Twins, has had a solid individual season thus far, boasting an impressive 1.62 ERA. His Power Ranking stands at #28 among starting pitchers, indicating he's been one of the stronger arms despite the team's overall struggles. However, he’s been projected to pitch only 4.8 innings today, which is below average, and he may face challenges as he allows a concerning average of 3.9 hits and 1.2 walks per game.

On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks, taking the mound for the Angels, has not fared as well, currently holding a 4.50 ERA and a 0-2 record this year. The projections suggest he may struggle, projecting to allow 2.8 earned runs and an alarming 5.5 hits on average, alongside a mere 3.7 strikeouts.

While the Twins' offense ranks 26th in batting average and 25th in home runs, they do have a top-tier bullpen ranked 10th in MLB, which could play a crucial role late in the game. In contrast, the Angels, despite their power—ranking 7th in home runs—have been inconsistent, sitting at 24th in overall offense.

With the Twins favored at a moneyline of -190, their statistical edge indicates potential for a bounce-back performance, making them a team to watch closely as they look to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks's four-seamer rate has jumped by 6.7% from last year to this one (12.6% to 19.3%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Kyren Paris, Mike Trout, Logan O'Hoppe, Jorge Soler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all SPs, Pablo Lopez's fastball spin rate of 2152 rpm ranks in the 6th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Carlos Correa's true offensive talent to be a .339, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .110 deviation between that mark and his actual .229 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Minnesota's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in baseball: #26 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 21 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 67% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.81, Minnesota Twins 4.66

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

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