Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 5/7/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
  • Quinn Priester - Pirates

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on May 7, 2024, at PNC Park. The Pirates, with a record of 17-19, are having a below-average season, while the Angels, with a record of 12-23, are struggling with a terrible season. This interleague matchup promises an intriguing battle between two teams seeking to turn their seasons around.

The Pirates will be the home team, looking to capitalize on the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Quinn Priester, who has shown promise this season. Priester has started three games with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.31. However, his peripheral indicator, the 4.09 xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Angels will send left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval to the mound. Sandoval, ranked as the #47 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started seven games with a win/loss record of 1-5 and an ERA of 5.91. However, his 3.67 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

The Pirates offense ranks as the #26 best in MLB this season, while the Angels offense ranks #15. The Pirates have struggled in team batting average and home runs, ranking #26 and #23, respectively. However, they have an average ranking in stolen bases at #12. The Angels, on the other hand, have excelled in team home runs, ranking #3, but have struggled in stolen bases, ranking #27.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Pirates rank #5 according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Angels rank #29. This suggests that the Pirates have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -125, implying a win probability of 53%. The Angels, with a moneyline of +105, have a win probability of 47%. The Pirates also have a higher implied team total of 4.40 runs compared to the Angels' 4.10 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Compared to average, Patrick Sandoval has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 6.6 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Luis Rengifo who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Quinn Priester.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Quinn Priester has been unlucky since the start of last season, putting up a 6.65 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.50 — a 2.15 deviation.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Oneil Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 112 games (+13.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 64% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.29 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.54

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