Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 4/2/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Kansas City Royals on April 2, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing early in the season. The Brewers hold a 1-4 record, while the Royals are slightly better at 2-3. Both teams are looking to turn their fortunes around in this Interleague matchup.

In their previous game, the Brewers suffered a disappointing loss, which has compounded their struggles. Freddy Peralta is set to take the mound for Milwaukee, and while his 0-1 record may not inspire confidence, his 3.60 ERA suggests he has been unlucky so far. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place Peralta as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB, and projections indicate he may perform better moving forward, with an expected 2.4 earned runs allowed over 5.7 innings. However, his tendency to allow an average of 4.3 hits and 1.7 walks is concerning.

On the other side, Cole Ragans will start for Kansas City. Despite his 5.40 ERA, Ragans ranks 14th in MLB, indicating he has been more effective than his numbers suggest. Projections indicate he may allow around 2.5 earned runs in 5.5 innings, which is slightly above average.

Both offenses have struggled, with the Brewers ranking 45th in MLB and the Royals at 27th. The projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with a game total of just 7.5 runs. Betting markets reflect this with both teams’ moneylines set at -110, indicating a tight contest. Given the current trends, the Brewers might have a slight edge, especially with a solid outing expected from Peralta against a faltering Royals lineup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Kansas City Royals with a 21% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's slider usage has dropped by 19.4% from last year to this one (21.6% to 2.2%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Sal Frelick's 0.8% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 7.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #22 club in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 83 games at home (+7.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.